SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260024
NDZ000-SDZ000-260200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260024Z - 260200Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A VERY HOT...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED TODAY OVER CNTRL SD
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 100-105F. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
ERN CORSON COUNTY SSWWD TO ERN ZIEBACH COUNTY IN SD OWING LARGELY TO
THE INTENSE DIABATIC HEATING AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER /UP TO
700 MB/ WITH DCAPES OF 1500-1900 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS.
FARTHER TO THE N INTO S-CNTRL ND...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTER
CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. HERE TOO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/.
.MEAD.. 07/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
44730122 45880076 46730015 47199954 46859891 45889979
45270006 44570066
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