Thursday, July 26, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1588

ACUS11 KWNS 262105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262105
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN MN...NWRN/W-CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553...

VALID 262105Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553
CONTINUES.

AS OF 2100Z...SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND QUASI-LINEAR BANDS OF
TSTMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF NERN/E-CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI.
THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A RECENT HISTORY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
NEAR-SEVERE OBSERVED WIND GUSTS /REF 47 KTS AT MSP AND 40 KTS AT
DLH/. THE AIR MASS ACROSS W-CNTRL WI REMAINS LARGELY UNTAPPED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG/. CONTINUED
UPSCALE GROWTH/STORM CONSOLIDATION SHOULD LEND TO A MORE ORGANIZED
COLD POOL AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO NRN WI.

FARTHER SW INTO S-CNTRL MN...INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOWED BY REMANENT CLOUDINESS/EARLIER CONVECTION. MORE VIGOROUS
GROWTH APPEARS TO BE COMMENCING BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...BOTH ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND ALONG VARIOUS
CONFLUENT BANDS. DESPITE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 20 KTS PER
WOOD LAKE MN AND SLATER IA PROFILERS/...POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT.

.GRAMS.. 07/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

46729035 46248988 45479017 44589128 44069273 43249349
43279430 43879515 44339557 44769526 45409457 45639344
46239276 46869222 47369137

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