SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262154
IAZ000-262330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262154Z - 262330Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP S OF WW/S 553/554 WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT OR
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER BLUE EARTH AND FARIBAULT COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL
MN. AMBIENT AIR MASS OVER N-CNTRL IA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG OWING TO TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90F
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES IN
GENERAL ARE QUITE WARM AND THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT EVEN GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED FOR
ABOVE-MENTIONED STORMS AS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLD...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
.MEAD.. 07/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
43199485 43449465 43499269 43449181 42679185 42179277
42249386 42619496
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