SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302150
MTZ000-IDZ000-310015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT AND NERN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302150Z - 310015Z
SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND A FEW COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED UNDER A SWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ON
NWRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH MAIN UPPER HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING
SHIFTING WELL N INTO CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR NWRN
MT SWD INTO ERN OREGON...BUT WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE QUITE WEAK.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR GREAT FALLS WITH PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD INTO E-CNTRL ID. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE MIXED TO
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
CONTINUED AREAS OF HEATING...ALONG WITH SWLY UPSLOPE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. VERY
DEEP MIXED LAYERS WILL FAVOR EVAPORATION AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
.JEWELL.. 07/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
47610869 46150976 44291353 44421491 45021567 46501508
47571414 48291262 48591124 48300972
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