Monday, July 30, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1618

ACUS11 KWNS 302210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302210
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-310045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL AZ...SERN
CA...EXTREME SRN NV.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302210Z - 310045Z

SPORADIC STG-SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION AS TSTMS
SPREAD/DEVELOP WWD INTO THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO IS EXPECTED WITH RATES AROUND
2 INCHES/HOUR FROM HEAVIEST CORES.

AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS EVIDENT AS OF 22Z...FROM NRN
MOJAVE COUNTY AZ SSEWD ACROSS MUCH OF YAVAPAI/ERN LA
PAZ/MARICOPA/WRN PIMA COUNTIES. SO FAR...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
EXHIBITED RATHER DISORGANIZED...PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS...WITH SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING RADIALLY
FROM MANY TSTMS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH WEAKENING CINH IS EVIDENT FARTHER W ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH TEMPS COMMONLY BETWEEN 100-108 F AND DEW POINTS AROUND
60 CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AND DCAPE EACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
ASSOCIATED DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE
ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING
ACTIVITY MERGE AND PERHAPS ORGANIZE UPSCALE AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.

.EDWARDS.. 07/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

32661534 34601535 35641504 36121441 35911346 34861318
33671321 33301260 31731239 32471480 32601477 32711469

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