SWODY1
SPC AC 030055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO FRONT RANGE...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM NM/AZ TO UT/CO/WY
TONIGHT WHERE DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING BENEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN A MOIST BUT
GENERALLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND
DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE SCALE HIGH...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT AND
SHEAR FROM UT ACROSS WY/CO. IN ADDITION...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WAS PROMOTING/SUSTAINING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN WY AND CO FRONT RANGE ATTM. A FEW STORMS IN
THESE AREAS MAY PERSIST GIVEN LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR...AND LIFT/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE MCV. LATEST INDICATIONS APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A FEW OF
THE MORE ROBUST/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..AL/FL GULF COAST/GA...
A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NERN GULF COAST WHERE A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL
MAINTAIN MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AND FOCUSED ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
FL AND SRN GA TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BOTH
FORECAST THE CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPING NEWD AND INLAND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COINCIDENT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
APPEAR TOO LIMITED/WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
..CNTRL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO KS. POCKETS OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH VERY ISOLATED AND
POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS OCCURRING FROM THE KS/MO BORDER TO SWRN IA
TO LAKE MI ATTM. DESPITE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY STRONGER
CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR ISOLATED STORMS... LIMITED
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...AND WEAK SHEAR...ARE
EXPECTED TO RESTRICT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT
MAY MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD WRN NY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
..SRN PLAINS TO TN/KY...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SRN U.S. WITH TYPICALLY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER AN EXTENSIVE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
FORCING...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FROM TX TO TN/KY. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
.CARBIN.. 08/03/2007
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