DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250053
SWODY1
SPC AC 250051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

..OH VALLEY THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE PRIMARILY ALONG CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
BOUNDARY FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IL. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN IND THROUGH OH...AND MODERATELY
STRONG DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
WEAKEN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH OBSERVED SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
DATA SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER S OF ONGOING STORMS FROM SRN IL...SRN
IND AND SRN OH IS DRYER AND MORE DEEPLY MIXED WHICH IS RESULTING IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS INDICATES STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
MUCH FARTHER SWD. DESPITE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A
WEAKENING TREND...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE LINE MAY REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE EWD TO ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN OK. THREAT FOR MAINLY
LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN KS CONTINUES EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THIS
REGION. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z RAOB FROM NORMAN SHOWS AND INVERSION IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY INCREASE. GIVEN WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL
OK.

.DIAL.. 08/25/2007

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