SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022135
UTZ000-WYZ000-022330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022135Z - 022330Z
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN UT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...INCLUDING THE SALT LAKE CITY/PROVO AREAS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NV AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC FORCING LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL UT. SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION/HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UT. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW
DOES EXISTS ACROSS UT EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH...AND WIND
PROFILES MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE
MID LEVEL ROTATION...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION
TO STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...WITH VALUES RUNNING AROUND 170
PERCENT OF NORMAL PER OBSERVED 12Z SALT LAKE CITY OBSERVED.
.GUYER.. 08/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...
41561196 41201101 40211074 38371118 38671239 40661240
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