SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042206
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN NEB...FAR NWRN KS...NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042206Z - 050000Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY
ORIENTED NE-SW FROM CENTRAL/SWRN NEB INTO FAR NERN CO/NWRN KS IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER WW IS UNLIKELY.
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF TCU EXTENDING FROM GARFIELD COUNTY
IN NCENTRAL NEB SWWD TO LBF TO NEAR GLD. THIS CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ALONG A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. PER REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP
DATA...VERTICAL SHEAR WAS ADEQUATE FOR SOME STORM
ROTATION/ORGANIZATION OVER NRN PORTIONS /CENTRAL NEB/ WHERE 30 KTS
OF MID LVL FLOW EXISTS. THUS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
SWRN NEB/FAR NERN CO/NWRN KS...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS /AROUND 20
KTS/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...30 DEG SFC
T/TD SPREAD COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG
DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.
.CROSBIE.. 08/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
42009858 42099932 41929993 41580086 41180154 40830202
40310228 39600231 39400222 39370170 39540119 39950057
40329979 40699926 41109881 41609824
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