SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042309
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...IA AND ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562...
VALID 042309Z - 050015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562
CONTINUES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY ACROSS THE WW AREA
SHORTLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA...WHERE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS PRESENT ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT STRETCHED NW-SE ACROSS IA FROM NEAR SPW TO OTM. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP AND BE CO-LOCATED NEAR THIS WARM FRONT...THE STORMS WOULD
MOVE ESEWD AND ENCOUNTER 25-30 KT 1 KM SHEAR AND 3KM SRH AROUND 300
M2/S2. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS FORM NEAR THE
WARM FRONT...PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF IA...MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH.
.IMY.. 08/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
40579629 42759850 43129459 40499168
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