SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070024
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SD...IA...NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070024Z - 070200Z
A WATCH REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT IF CURRENTLY WIDELY-SPACED CELLULAR STORMS CAN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND POSE A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
WIDELY-SPACED SUPERCELL INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ALONG A CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN SD SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB TO
SRN IA. LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT HINDERED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BY THE PASSAGE OF
EARLIER MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV. NOW THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE REGION...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING...FIRST
NEAR FRONTAL WAVE OVER SD...AND MORE RECENTLY OVER THE MO RIVER
NEB/IA BORDER AREA. TAIL-END UPDRAFTS ON BOTH THESE STORM COMPLEXES
APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED ON THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THESE SEGMENTS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. RECENT
DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE TIED TO WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN GENERALLY CONFLUENT AND WEAK TO MODEST WLY FLOW
ALOFT. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...FURTHER
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEAR
TO SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME UPSCALE EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...EITHER WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SEWD FROM
SD...OR...POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY...CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT FORM ERN NEB INTO
IA.
IF ONE OR BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS BECOME MORE CERTAIN...AND DEEP
CONVECTION FORMS INTO LARGER SCALE COMPLEX WITH INCREASING AREAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOME OF THE
AREA.
.CARBIN.. 08/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
40849509 40899798 41899930 43619998 43879940 43679688
43369473 43089357 42359267 41339267
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