SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070328
IAZ000-NEZ000-070630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NE...IA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 070328Z - 070630Z
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM REPEAT/REGENERATIVE CONVECTION MAY
BE AN EVOLVING PROBLEM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA TONIGHT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED WARM FRONT FROM SERN NEB INTO SRN IA. A
NUMBER OF STORM OUTFLOWS ALSO EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR/E OF GRI TO LNK TO 20S OMA. NEW CONVECTION IS
ERUPTING ALONG THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SWWD FROM
THE WARM FRONT TO A WEAK THERMAL LOW OVER NCNTRL KS. VERY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE REGIME IS COINCIDENT WITH THE VARIOUS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY FUEL ADDITIONAL ROBUST
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL...WILL EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY POSE A GREATER HAZARD.
LATEST WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATES 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES
TO BE DIRECTED INTO THE TROUGH AXIS AND WARM FRONT. GIVEN PW VALUES
AROUND 200 PCT OF NORMAL...AND WEAK STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS
ORIENTED ALONG THE UPDRAFT GENESIS/FRONTAL ZONES...AN EXCESSIVE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS SITUATION
MAY BE EXACERBATED BY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE REGION AIDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND TRAINING
POTENTIAL RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...ANY EVOLVING MCS IN THIS AREA WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY EAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER SUSTAINED...OR
REJUVENATED...AS STRONG MCV NOW DEVELOPING OUT OF LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING EAST FROM CO/WRN KS....MOVES EAST ATOP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
.CARBIN.. 08/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
41019473 40639588 40509693 40349785 40899872 41349839
41719782 42039721 42269669 42479582 42509519 42059460
41499416
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