SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122249
IAZ000-130015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589...
VALID 122249Z - 130015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589
CONTINUES.
THROUGH 00Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM
A SHELBY TO MILLS COUNTY IA LINE EWD TO A DALLAS TO UNION COUNTY IA
LINE.
A MATURE BOW ECHO AS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM WRN SHELBY COUNTY IA TO ERN
CASS COUNTY NEB AS OF 2240Z. THE SYSTEM MOTION HAD ACCELERATED TO
40-45 KT. AMBIENT AIR MASS ACROSS SRN IA REMAINS HOT AND EXTREMELY
MOIST THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. PRIMARY COLD
POOL SURGE THUS FAR HAS OCCURRED FROM DODGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
IN E-CNTRL NEB EWD THROUGH HARRISON AND SHELBY COUNTIES INTO IA.
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS PORTION OF MCS TAKES IT INTO DALLAS COUNTY IA
BY 00Z.
GIVEN THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TRAILING SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER...AN
ADDITIONAL COLD POOL SURGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN IA WHERE AIR
MASS REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. WIND GUSTS TO 50-60 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE BOWING PORTIONS OF THE MCS.
.MEAD.. 08/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...
41689545 41789512 41849418 41749383 41209372 40709422
40619494 40689536 40879570
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