MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1773

ACUS11 KWNS 162242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162242
AZZ000-162345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 162242Z - 162345Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE VALLEY FLOORS.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS MAY BE GETTING A BIT MORE CONSOLIDATED
AS THEY PROPAGATE WWD OUT OF THE MTNS OF SERN AZ. MODIFIED 19Z
PHOENIX SOUNDING SHOWS A TYPICAL VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH ABOUT
1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
WEAK...HOWEVER...THEY ARE ELY AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A
WWD PROPAGATION INTO THE VALLEYS. GIVEN NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...EXPECTED STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE LOWLANDS FOR A
WHILE. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY
ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY.

.JEWELL.. 08/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

33791257 34171193 33971153 33551109 33151092 32861091
32551114 32421239 32831280 33221300 33431308

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