SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200037
MTZ000-WYZ000-200230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MT AND WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617...
VALID 200037Z - 200230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH RISK OF
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FARTHER EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE EXTENT/LIKLIHOOD OF A SEVERE THREAT
DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHEAST MT...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A NUMBER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SINCE MID AFTERNOON...MOST NOTABLY A CLUSTER OF MEASURED SEVERE
GUSTS ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM HELENA TO NEAR/NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS. THIS INCLUDES A RECENT 51 KT GUST AT HAVRE AS OF 0004Z. EVEN
THOUGH STORMS HAVE SEEMINGLY UNDERGONE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN
CENTRAL MT OVER THE PAST HOUR...SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING GIVEN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING/COMPOSITE MESOSCALE OUTFLOWS INTO A RELATIVELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHEAST MT. 00Z GLASGOW MT
OBSERVED SOUNDING IS REFLECTIVE OF CONSIDERABLE MIXING SINCE THIS
MORNING...BUT RESIDUAL 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SUPPORTS 700
J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL INTO
EASTERN/NORTHEAST MT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NECESSITY OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST MT.
.GUYER.. 08/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
43280781 42850959 45851114 47541106 48591003 48880697
48660506 48420438 47740418 46830456 46780717 45390769
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