SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210003
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/WESTERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210003Z - 210200Z
MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD/SOUTHWEST MN/WESTERN IA THROUGH MID EVENING. A WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
APPARENT INTO AREAS NORTH AND/OR EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 623.
EARLY DAY STORMS HAVE TEMPERED HEATING/SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. EARLIER TODAY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SET UP AN EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN
IA...WHICH HAS HELPED TO FOCUS SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEB THUS FAR. AS SUGGESTED BY RUC SOUNDINGS...A CAPPING WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB HAS LIKELY ALSO BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NORTH EXTENT INTO THE
SIOUX FALLS VICINITY.
NEVERTHELESS...GRADUAL RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN IA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHERN MN OWING
TO PARTIAL INSOLATION/LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION. OF NOTE...RECENT
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED BETWEEN YANKTON AND SIOUX FALLS PER
VOLUMETRIC RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 2345Z.
GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS TO THE DEGREE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH ISSUANCE. SOME QUESTION EXISTS REGARDING THE
DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE MODE/EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS
WOULD LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE VERY
LEAST.
.GUYER.. 08/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
42529756 43869688 43939570 43369461 42149413 40749417
40739507 42269505 42449535
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