SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210101
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS INTO THE TX/OK PNHDL REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622...624...
VALID 210101Z - 210230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
622...624...CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN CONSIDERABLY OFF AFTERNOON
HIGHS...NEAR/EAST OF DRY LINE. AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT INHIBITION IS STRENGTHENING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT DEMISE OF STORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AID THE
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF INTENSE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE
CONSOLIDATING...AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN. SPEEDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 40-45 KT ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...MAINTAINING STRONG INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR.
THE WARMTH OF MID-LEVELS/STRENGTH OF INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE PROSPECT FOR
FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING STORM CLUSTER.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUING
DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ABOVE
EXPANDING COLD POOL...WHICH COULD ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UNSATURATED PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. BUT... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
.KERR.. 08/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
37520163 38410150 38790001 38269868 37339842 36399958
36150067 36660152
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