Thursday, August 23, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1872

ACUS11 KWNS 240030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240030
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-240200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND EXTREME NWRN
OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...

VALID 240030Z - 240200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642
CONTINUES.

LAST VESTIGES OF WHAT WAS A STRONG BOW ECHO THAT DEVELOPED OVER
CHICAGOLAND WAS DIMINISHING OVER THE DETROIT METRO AREA. BASED ON
MESOANALYSIS AND UPSTREAM VWP...THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR THAT
EMANATED FROM THIS TSTM COMPLEX APPARENTLY IS QUITE SHALLOW. IN
FACT...RENEWED STORMS THAT HAVE ORGANIZED RECENTLY IN SRN
CHICAGOLAND PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRONOUNCED ORGANIZATION TO THE LINEAR MCS OVER NERN
IL AND MODEST INSTABILITY FEEDING THE STORMS...IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD BOOKEND TORNADO THREATS TO EXPAND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL INDIANA THROUGH MID-EVENING.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR FROM THE MERRILLVILLE/VALPARAISO REGIONS ESEWD TOWARD PLYMOUTH
AND ROCHESTER INDIANA THROUGH 0130Z. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE BOW APEX WILL BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SITUATED ACROSS NRN INDIANA.

ELSEWHERE...THE COLD POOL APPEARS DEEPER ACROSS LWR
MI...PARTICULARLY N OF A LATITUDE OF KGRR AND KLAN. OTHER THAN THE
LINGERING THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/HAIL VCNTY KDTW THROUGH
0130Z...PRIMARY SVR THREATS SHOULD SKIRT THE IND/MI BORDER AND
POINTS SWD.

.RACY.. 08/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

42558679 43928369 43668260 42668246 41488321 41268528
41228656

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