MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1895

ACUS11 KWNS 260111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260111
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652...

VALID 260111Z - 260245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652
CONTINUES.

MORE ROBUST TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTINUE ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE WW
ACROSS ERN PA WHERE A MLCAPE AXIS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG EXISTS.
TSTMS FIRST DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/LEE TROUGH AND
QUICKLY GREW UPSCALE INTO LARGE MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WET
MICROBURSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...OTHER TSTMS DEVELOPED VCNTY A COLD
FRONT IN THE OH VLY. LONGER LIVED CLUSTER THAT PRODUCED HAIL/DMGG
WIND GUSTS IN THE MID-OH VLY DIMINISHED OVER NWRN WV EARLIER WITH
ITS OUTFLOW MOVING EWD INTO THE WRN LOWLANDS OF WV. TO THE N...A
COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL PA WITH
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT VCNTY KDUJ. THIS ACTIVITY WAS EMBEDDED IN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT TIME OF DAY WILL LIKELY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN SUSTAINING LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL PA HAD COOLED INTO THE
70S...DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST
OF THE REGION REMAINED CONVECTION FREE DURING THE AFTN.
ISOLD STORMS MAY YET PRODUCE GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS. BUT...OVERALL...IT APPEARS THE SVR THREATS ARE WANING WITH
TIME.

.RACY.. 08/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

38948069 40637975 41447753 40287649 38677691

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