SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270104
MNZ000-NDZ000-270300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 653...
VALID 270104Z - 270300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 653 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH ERN ND AND NWRN
MN.
EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH
SERN ND WEST OF JAMESTOWN. ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN A GENERAL EWD
DIRECTION AT AROUND 25 KT. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AXIS
OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH 3500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 8 C/KM LAPSE RATES.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT 50 KT MID LEVEL JET ADVANCING EWD
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE 40+ KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES THIS EVENING. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW 150+ 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY BASED ON
EWD MOVING STORMS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR EWD INTO NRN MN
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH CAPE AXIS AND INTO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATER THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SOME STORMS TO BEGIN MERGING INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
.DIAL.. 08/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
48909521 47959570 46509761 46149902 46129989 46460015
47709890 48409828 48919722
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