MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1900

ACUS11 KWNS 270408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270407
NDZ000-270600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270407Z - 270600Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND TO DEVELOP BY 06Z.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.

LATE THIS EVENING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN ND
SWWD THROUGH SWRN ND AND SERN MT. WV AND RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA
SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS
SERN MT. ACCAS SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ERN MT INTO SWRN ND MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODELS INDICATE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SD AS THE
IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE LOW OVER SD WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
LIFT EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN ND. BISMARK 00Z
RAOB SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AROUND 700 MB.
HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY MOISTEN AND COOL THE
INVERSION LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED...BUT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

.DIAL.. 08/27/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

46299978 46000094 46020271 46680273 47270063 46939952

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