Thursday, August 30, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

ACUS11 KWNS 301508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301507
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-301700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...VT NH ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301507Z - 301700Z

CHANCES FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS POTENTIAL MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SWWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY...SRN VT/NH...AND MA LATER
TODAY. AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THESE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT SWODY1 AND A WATCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ASCENT ACROSS DEEP-LAYER FONTAL ZONE...NOW EXTENDING FROM NERN NY TO
NRN ME...WAS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX SITUATED ACROSS ERN CANADA. MORE FOCUSED FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING STRONG TSTM NOW TRACKING
EWD OVER THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/NRN NH AT ABOUT 40KT.
WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AHEAD OF THIS PARTICULAR
CELL...FROM NRN NH INTO WRN ME...AND FORCING/SHEAR ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...COULD ENHANCE STORM SCALE PROCESSES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG HEATING AND MODEST
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE RANGE
OF 6-7 C/KM...MLCAPE VALUES WILL PROBABLY MAX OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S F. AS INHIBITION IS
OVERCOME AND FRONT SETTLES SEWD...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ENSUE. AS USUAL...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SHEAR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL ZONE...AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE FROM A COUPLE OF
THE MORE ROBUST TSTMS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...A SLGT RISK WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED TO THE NEXT SWODY1 ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. A WATCH IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IF IT APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.CARBIN.. 08/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

45357084 45856929 46386796 45836788 45216810 44346989
44017098 43827162 43727242 44007300 44587264

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