Tuesday, September 4, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 042031
SWODY1
SPC AC 042031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NE NV...NW
UT AND FAR SRN ID...

CORRECTED FOR GEN TSTM LINE

..RETRANSMITTED PER REQUEST...

..ERN ID/NE NV/NRN UT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
WRN ORE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NV...CNTRL UT
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN ID AND NW WY.

SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
SHOWN BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM
60 KT IN SRN ID TO 30 KT IN ECNTRL ID AND NRN UT. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN NV BUT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE
PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN ID AND
ERN ACROSS NRN UT. LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY VERY STEEP ESPECIALLY
AT LOW-LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REFERENCE MCD 1930.

..SE ORE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WRN ORE.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SE ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LOW. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...COLD AIR
ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -16C/ IS PRESENT IN THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-LOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HARNEY BASIN OF SE ORE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 09/04/2007

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