SWODY1
SPC AC 010047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MID-UPR MS VLY SWWD INTO THE OZARKS/ERN OK...
BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION TO THE SVR THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LEAD BAND OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS IA AND NRN MO THIS AFTN WERE MOVING INTO
THE MID-UPR MS VLY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE 00Z DVN SOUNDING
EXHIBITED A MUCH MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THESE STORMS
HAVE LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SHRINKING
INSTABILITY AXIS BY 02-03Z. NONETHELESS...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY LINGERING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO SRN WI AND
WRN IL WITHIN THE 55 KT SSWLY LLJ AXIS.
OTHER TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
OZARKS AND ERN OK WHERE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WERE
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE INHIBITION. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS REGION...AND ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING WILL LIKELY BE RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE...SECONDARY AREA OF MORE DISCRETE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW LATE IN THE
AFTN ACROSS NWRN IA WERE ALSO DIMINISHING. THIS WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PRIMARY FORCING
ASSOCD WITH THE UPR LOW TRANSLATES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE UPR
MIDWEST.
.RACY.. 10/01/2007
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