SWODY1
SPC AC 261237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NEW
ENGLAND...
..UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THESE FEATURES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL OCCUR
OVER THIS AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM ME INTO EASTERN OH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STRONG BUT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS. BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS
AREA WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES.
..WEST TX...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO WEST TX...WHERE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY. STRONG HEATING
WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM WEST OF AMA INTO THE DAVIS MTNS. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES REGION. RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS.
.HART/JEWELL.. 09/26/2007
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