SWODY1
SPC AC 051625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN...
..GREAT BASIN...
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NV. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO
PARTS OF ID/UT BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WY BY TOMORROW
MORNING. PLUME OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER PARTS OF NV/UT NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST
ID. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY. RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF UT AND SOUTHEAST ID WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN CO/WY DURING THE EVENING AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.
..AZ...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TUS/PSR SHOW A SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILE TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
DRY MID LEVEL AIR. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HENRIETTE MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE SURFACE T-TD
SPREADS AND STRONG DCAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED
FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGEST THREAT WILL BE TOO LOCALIZED FOR A HIGHER
RISK CATEGORY.
..LOWER MS VALLEY...
SMALL-SCALE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER OK THIS MORNING...WITH BAND
OF STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO PARTS
OF AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER HEATING TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF MS/LA AS WELL. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT. IN ADDITION...BAND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG AN
AXIS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR.
.HART/GUYER.. 09/05/2007
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