SWODY1
SPC AC 112001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NY
THROUGH NWRN VT...
..PA THROUGH NY AND VT...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NY SWWD THROUGH WRN PA AND INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR FROM VA NEWD THROUGH
THE NERN STATES. THIS HAS CONSIDERABLY LIMITED INSTABILITY WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING INCREASING FROM WRN PA
NEWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NY AS DEEP ASCENT WITHIN JET EXIT REGION
ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVERTAKES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING MAINLY IN POST FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF
CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHERE BREAKS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXIST. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS IN THIS REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY THE EWD ADVECTION OF DRYER
POST FRONTAL AIR. NET RESULT IS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIMITED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW IS
RESULTING IN DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..ERN VA THROUGH ERN MA...
A FEW STORMS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN VA THROUGH SRN MD THEN NEWD INTO EXTREME
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR
FROM 40 TO 50 KT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..FL...
STRONG HEATING...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
AND 6.5 - 7 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. MULTICELL AND PULSE STORMS DEVELOPING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.DIAL.. 09/11/2007
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