SWODY2
SPC AC 230558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI SWWD INTO SERN NEB/NRN
KS...
..SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/DEAMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. SHIFTS EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...REACHING A POSITION FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO OK/W TX BY 25/12Z.
..WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
S...RESULTING IN NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTENING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED-LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
STORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF FRONT --
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LINEAR
ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME.
WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 40 KT SWLYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT -- NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT...LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS/STORM SEGMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
.GOSS.. 09/23/2007
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