SWODY2
SPC AC 250555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY COVERING MUCH OF CANADA AND THE N
CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN
CONUS/SEWD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE SWRN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..THE NORTHEAST...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS.
POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR A GENERAL DIURNAL INCREASE
IN STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED -- WITH STORM ORGANIZATION FURTHER
AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR. ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF PA/NY NEWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...GIVEN MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY
FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION.
..PARTS OF NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TX...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON.
WITH 25 TO 30 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS ATOP SLY LOW-LEVEL
COMPONENT...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING UPDRAFTS
MAY SUPPORT A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND. THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS A MODEST/NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SELYS MAY
ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST.
.GOSS.. 09/25/2007
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