SWODY2
SPC AC 051716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...
..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD
ORGANIZE IN THE NRN PLAINS WITH POSSIBLY A SECONDARY LOW FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO WRN KS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR AND
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS ERN SD...CNTRL NEB AND
POSSIBLE NRN KS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL LINEAR MCSS BY EARLY
EVENING.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT MOVING A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO NEB THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CREATE
VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
SUGGESTED BY THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION. THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET WOULD PLACE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR HURON
SD EXTENDING SWD ACROSS NEB TO NORTH PLATTE AND GRAND ISLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEP AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
LINEAR CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NE SD AND NCNTRL MN. HOWEVER WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED. MODEL
FORECASTS ALSO DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN KS BUT WARM
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD KEEP
THE ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED IN THAT REGION.
.BROYLES.. 09/05/2007
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