SWOD48
SPC AC 110859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH DAY 5 /I.E. SAT. SEPT.
15/...AFTER WHICH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY.
BOTH MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
CONUS THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5...AFTER WHICH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE ERN CONUS. GFS REMAINS MUCH
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT WITH THIS HIGH...WITH NLY/NELY SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPICTED BY THIS MODEL
THROUGH THE PERIOD -- WHICH WOULD LIKELY HINDER ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEAKER AND VACATE
THE ERN U.S. QUICKER...THUS PERMITTING MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE DAY 7-8. GIVEN CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO
OUTLOOK ANY THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OK DAY 4 /I.E. FRI.
SEPT. 14/ NEAR OR JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT
IS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST --
GENERALLY WRN PA INTO WV -- AS LIMITED AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. ATTM...BOTH OF THESE POTENTIAL
THREATS APPEAR LIMITED/UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT OUTLOOK AREAS WILL NOT
BE ADDED ATTM. HOWEVER...EITHER OF THESE AREAS -- PARTICULARLY THE
APPALACHIANS AREA -- WILL BE WATCHED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
.GOSS.. 09/11/2007
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