SWOD48
SPC AC 130905
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL/SWRN STATES ARE BOTH FORECAST
TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING -- AND ASSOCIATED
ELY/ENELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO -- SHOULD LIMIT THE SPEED
AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS...TAKING A
CIRCUITOUS ROUTE FROM THE SRN GULF NWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO/THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND THEN NWD INTO THE PLAINS ON SEVERAL DAYS OF
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND WSWLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH...INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LESS-STOUT CAPPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT. THE
THREAT IS INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION DURING THE DAY 5 PERIOD /I.E. MON. SEPT. 17/...AND THEN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 /I.E. TUE. SEPT. 18/ AS A
WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS FURTHER S ALONG THE FRONT.
.GOSS.. 09/13/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment