Sunday, September 16, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160836
SWOD48
SPC AC 160836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...

DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW
IN THE W AND RIDGING IN THE E...DIFFERING SOLUTIONS EXIST OVER CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL TIER OF STATES. WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODEL...THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW MUCH MORE AMPLITUDE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THU/DAY5 AND FRI/DAY 6. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
GFS/UKMET SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN.

THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
NEWD EJECTION OF AT LEAST PART OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SAT/DAY 7 INTO SUN/DAY 8. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS IN QUESTION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL BE
DELINEATED.

.MEAD.. 09/16/2007

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