SWOD48
SPC AC 240853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DAY 6 /SAT. SEPT. 29/. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A N-S COLD FRONT.
A PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD SUGGEST THAT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE RETURN
NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD EWD ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR LIKELY RESULTING IN AMPLE CAPE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INVOF COLD FRONT. WITH MODELS DEPICTING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KT...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE A RISK AREA FOR DAY 6 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
.GOSS.. 09/24/2007
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