Tuesday, September 4, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1930

ACUS11 KWNS 041933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041933
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-042030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/NRN UT/S CNTRL AND SERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041933Z - 042030Z

CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST CENTRAL
AND NERN NV...EXTREME NWRN UT...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ID. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA ALL
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF SEWD MOVING UPPER
LOW OVER WRN OREGON...WITHIN WRN EDGE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS ERN NV/UT AND SRN ID. STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF AN
EARLIER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN UT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
DESTABILIZATION WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG OVER NERN NV
AND NWRN UT. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40F SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS IN THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH 35-45 KT CURRENTLY OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

.WEISS/GUYER.. 09/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

39581594 41661566 43421312 43131140 40231121 38911289

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