SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042318
AZZ000-CAZ000-050145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CA...SWRN AZ.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042318Z - 050145Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS ACROSS
LOWLANDS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ -- NAMELY IMPERIAL/CO RIVER VALLEYS --
WITH OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR MAY OCCUR IN
STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW-MOVING.
ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE MOVING EWD OFF MOUNTAIN INTO IMPERIAL
VALLEY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW OVER SWRN AZ S-SW OF
GBN...MOVING WWD TOWARD LOWER CO RIVER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO
IS POSSIBLE. PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. SFC DEW POINTS 60S/LOW 70S F
LINGER DESPITE DEEP MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE
PART TO COMPENSATING MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 1-2 KM DEEP SLY
GULF SURGE SAMPLED BY VWP FROM YUM. ASSOCIATED MLCAPES 1000-2000
J/KG OVER IMPERIAL VALLEY DIMINISH EWD ACROSS CO RIVER. WELL MIXED
SUBCLOUD REGION WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH
SFC...WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED OVER MUCH OF
DISCUSSION AREA. DEEPENING/PROGRESSION OF MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW
ACROSS NRN CA/ORE HAS RESULTED IN SWD DISPLACEMENT OF RIDGING
ALOFT...AND THEREFORE...PRESENCE OF WEAK MID/UPPER WINDS AND SLOW
STORM MOTION DRIVEN MAINLY BY OUTFLOW AND FORWARD-PROPAGATION. RICH
INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ENHANCE LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN HAZARD.
.EDWARDS.. 09/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...VEF...SGX...
32611579 33101594 33641607 34011603 34571564 34591451
34201395 33721343 32871294 31811263 32481480 32721469
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