MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1934

ACUS11 KWNS 051821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051820
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-052015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UT...EXTREME SERN ID...SWRN WY...EXTREME NWRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051820Z - 052015Z

CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN BAND FROM SWRN UT INTO NERN
UT...WITH OTHER STORMS CONTINUING FROM NWRN UT INTO SERN ID
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
19-20Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW INVOF NV/ID/OREGON BORDER MOVES SLOWLY
EWD...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS WRN/NRN UT INTO WRN WY. THIS IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ERN PORTIONS OF SW/NE ORIENTED DRY SLOT EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z SPECIAL SLC SOUNDING EXHIBITS STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IN THE MID LEVELS FROM 650-400
MB...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING
WITHIN THE DRY SLOT ALONG MLF-EVW AXIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE OF 700-1400 J/KG
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTS NEWD ACROSS
NWRN UT INTO SERN ID. RESULTANT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES TO FORM. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE NEWD 30-35
KT. ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE BY 19-20Z.

.WEISS.. 09/05/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

38321348 40141307 41291228 43061162 43561099 43670954
43080867 42250806 40580820 38940924 37651018 37361214
37511381

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