SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070230
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...NRN KS INTO WRN IA AND
NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...668...
VALID 070230Z - 070400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
667...668...CONTINUES.
THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS
INTO SERN NEB AND NERN KS. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW AREAS.
AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY NEB INTO SMITH COUNTY KS AS WELL AS
MARSHALL INTO NEMAHA COUNTIES KS. THE FORMER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
LOCATED ALONG LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONTAL SURGE AND WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CNTRL
PARTS OF SD/NEB. THE LATTER STORM CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/ REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...DRIVEN LARGELY BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 40-45 KT LLJ AXIS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NERN
KS INTO SERN NEB WHERE LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO GREATEST INFLUX OF
HOTTER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. CURRENT TOP VWP REMAINS
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-350 M2/S2. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...CONSIDERABLE
OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM GROWING TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD EVENTUALLY
UNDERCUT SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.
MOREOVER...BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT/ECHO TRAINING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OWING TO NEAR NORMAL ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY TO LLJ AXIS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...NAMELY OVER WASHINGTON...MARSHALL...NEMAHA AND BROWN
COUNTIES IN NERN KS WHERE LOCAL HOURLY RATES WILL APPROACH 1-2
INCHES. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CEASE ONCE SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES AREA.
.MEAD.. 09/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
42489832 42439686 42249560 41929559 41919500 41259505
41239481 40719475 40469452 39419449 39309509 38939508
38969997 38570014 38500092 38080110 38100220 38510228
38530318 39080315 39210150 39790133 39790085 40110075
40110035 41070037 41129932 41939926 41879841
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