MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1953

ACUS11 KWNS 101903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101903
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-102100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL CO ...CNTRL/ECNTRL NM AND FAR WRN TX
PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101903Z - 102100Z

TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN...BOTH ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN CO INTO NRN-CNTRL NM...AND ALONG A SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT ALONG THE HIGHER NM/TX PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ACROSS CO
AND INTO FAR NERN NM AND THE NRN TX PNHDL AT EARLY AFTN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIR MASS REMAINED QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1 TO 1.3 INCHES PER GPS-IPW
SENSORS. PRESENCE OF THE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
STRONG HEATING WERE YIELDING SBCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG.

MORE ABUNDANT TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
THUS FAR...WHERE DIURNAL UPSLOPE HAS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
BUT...CBS WERE BEGINNING TO SPROUT ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT
IN THE WRN TX PNHDL AND ECNTRL NM. TSTMS SHOULD GROW STRONGER
THROUGH THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...TIED TO A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS NCNTRL NM/SCNTRL CO
WHERE 30-35 KTS OF WNWLY FLOW AT H5 WILL EXIST ALONG THE BASE OF A
CNTRL PLAINS DISTURBANCE. THUS...MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER SWD INTO THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN CHAINS
WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER SE...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LESS...BUT PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE WITH THE THREAT FOR MAINLY HIGH WINDS.
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ESEWD INTO CNTRL/ECNTRL NM AND PARTS OF THE TX
S PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN.

.RACY.. 09/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

35050658 36670704 37690843 37690708 37000570 36350432
35780325 35400254 35150199 34720195 34410236 34190319
34200453 34260654 34520640

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