SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111849
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-111945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA INTO PARTS OF THE SRN DELMARVA REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111849Z - 111945Z
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN VA INTO SRN DE. LARGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING SVR VALUES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ERN EXTENT OF CLOUD SHIELD
FROM CHESTERFIELD COUNTY VA TO SERN NJ. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ATTENDANT WITH SRN EXTENT OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ADVANCES EWD. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
APPROACH...OR PERHAPS LOCALLY EXCEED...SVR VALUES.
.PETERS.. 09/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
37277786 37687733 38347620 38587503 37907517 37047585
36877606 36637701 36597749
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