SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131141
LAZ000-TXZ000-131445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN LA...SMALL PART OF SE TX NEAR
SABINE RIVER.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 131141Z - 131445Z
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS FCST TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER LA. RAIN
RATES 2-4 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH HAZARD
CONCENTRATED MOST ACUTELY IN TWO REGIMES...
1. PRIMARY OUTER BAND...LOCATED FROM ACADIA/VERMILION PARISHES SSEWD
OVER GULF AS OF 1115Z. THIS BAND IS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT LATERALLY
AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS ARA/LFT AREAS AND SRN PORTION I-49 DURING
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BRINGING ASSOCIATED RAIN MAX ACROSS PORTIONS
EVANGELINE/ST. LANDRY/LAFAYETTE/ST. MARTIN/IBERIA PARISHES THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. MERGING OF CELLS...AND TRAINING OF TSTMS ALONG AXIS OF
SLOWLY TRANSLATING BAND...WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD BY
PROLONGING ITS DURATION.
2. INNER CORE REGION WITHIN ABOUT 25 NW THROUGH 60 ENE OF
CENTER...WHERE COMBINATION OF MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...RICH
MOISTURE AND VERY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP GENERATOR.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED OVER SWRN
SEMICIRCLE OF HUMBERTO GIVEN LOWER-THETAE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THAT SECTOR...AND RELATED LACK OF CONVECTION.
AS CENTER MOVES NEWD INTO SWRN LA...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE
NEWD OUT OF SE TX.
REF WW 669 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHICH DOES NOT NECESSARILY COVER SAME
AREAS AS HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. REF NHC BULLETINS -- E.G. WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL
WATCHES/WARNINGS ON HUMBERTO.
.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
29539245 29649279 30309305 30459389 31249334 31479171
30729160 29059076 29249125 29429121 29519154 29579170
29439183 29589207
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