SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131856
MSZ000-LAZ000-132100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL LA INTO SW MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131856Z - 132100Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT.
REMNANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS NOW EAST
NORTHEAST OF FORT POLK...AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS ALEXANDRIA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BEFORE CONTINUING TOWARD AREAS
NEAR/NORTHWEST OF NATCHEZ MS BY 14/00Z. SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT...LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A RISK FOR TORNADOES
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS WHERE CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DRY SLOT IS ALLOWING INCREASING HEATING OF A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. NEW CONVECTION ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING IN AN ARCING
BAND FROM LAFAYETTE INTO THE VICINITY OF ALEXANDRIA. AND...ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT COULD ACCOMPANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
.KERR.. 09/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
31299244 31769209 31889143 31629105 30609099 30159149
30179190 30589214 30869222 31079230
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