SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162051
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-162215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ THRU MUCH OF ERN UT AND PARTS OF WRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670...
VALID 162051Z - 162215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670
CONTINUES.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GROWN NUMEROUS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW PROGRESSING INLAND OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.
DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...THE
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN DISCRETE...BASED IN A
RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KTS...STORMS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL INTENSIFY IN THE
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE
WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THROUGH 22-23Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
.KERR.. 09/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
35441214 36671285 38201215 39461084 40371001 40410846
38510808 37510891 35371033
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