Thursday, September 20, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988

ACUS11 KWNS 202228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202227
NEZ000-SDZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202227Z - 210000Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND NE NEB. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM SW SD
ACROSS WRN NEB. AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM MCCOOK NEWD TO NEAR O'NEILL NEB.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ALONG THE
WRN EDGE OF BOTH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT
STRONG AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE ACTIVITY RELATIVELY
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS NE NEB WHERE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST PROFILER FROM MCCOOK SUGGESTS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
EXISTS IN SCNTRL NEB. THIS APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SHEAR
ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL AND NE NEB AS WELL WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.BROYLES.. 09/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

40360044 40580078 41020087 42130031 42810007 43239961
43039853 42239849 40879920 40359983

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