SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232345
MNZ000-NDZ000-240145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND/FAR NORTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232345Z - 240145Z
SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY AROUND
01Z.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 999 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ND...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ANGLING NNE-SSW ACROSS
CENTRAL ND/WEST CENTRAL SD. WHILE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION/LACK OF
FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...FRONTAL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF WESTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...PERHAPS LIKELY BY AROUND
01Z-02Z ALONG A JAMESTOWN-DEVILS LAKE CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MAXIMIZED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. IN SPITE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY...AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL VEERING WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE LEWP EVOLUTION...WITH SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
POTENTIALLY POSING AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.GUYER.. 09/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
48829639 48139619 47119666 46319695 46109779 47139845
47589977 48819984 49059754
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