SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250037
MIZ000-WIZ000-250200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687...
VALID 250037Z - 250200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687
CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE COULD INCREASE THROUGH
03-06Z ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE
NEEDED. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD EAST OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...WEAK TO MODERATE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS PLUME...BASED NEAR THE
SURFACE...PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BAND OF STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR
OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
THIS EVENING...FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AND...AS THIS OCCURS...THE CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD AID THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY
NEAR SURFACE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 40-50 KT FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
.KERR.. 09/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...
44779058 45669032 46298986 46758913 46778773 46158719
44678817 43918993
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