Saturday, September 29, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2037

ACUS11 KWNS 300027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300026
SDZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300026Z - 300130Z

STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH SD INTO THE EVENING. INITIAL
THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. SHORT TERM TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING A LEFT SPLIT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CHERRY COUNTY NEB WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO SRN SD
SHORTLY...THOUGH RECENT WEAKENING OF THIS STORM HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN AND CNTRL SD IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SD AND THIS COULD SERVE
AS A POTENTIAL SHORT TERM LIMITING FACTOR. ASCENT ATTENDING MID
LEVEL SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
MAY MOISTEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER SD WITH TIME AND
CONTRIBUTE TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CAP...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET TO
SOME DEGREE BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NWD INTO SD WARM SECTOR...ADDITIONAL MORE
STRONGLY FORCED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL SD.

.DIAL.. 09/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

44379853 43269930 43110177 44540102 45730040 45649906

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