SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302245
IAZ000-302345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH SERN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698...
VALID 302245Z - 302345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 698 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 01Z
FROM NWRN THROUGH SERN IA AND E CNTRL IA...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THREAT MAY SHIFT A ROW OF COUNTIES OR TWO EAST OF
WW 698 AND IF NECESSARY WATCH CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO PARTS OF
E CNTRL IA.
A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER NWRN IA ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT ARCS FROM NWRN THROUGH SWRN IA. NWRN PART OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NWD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITHIN ABOUT A 40-50 MILE SWATH ACROSS NWRN IA. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND 0-3 KM CAPE IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT 1-2
HOURS. OTHERWISE...DEEP SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS SERN IA WHERE 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR ARE
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. THREAT MAY SHIFT A
ROW OF COUNTIES OR TWO EAST OF CURRENT WW. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE
STORMS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.
.DIAL.. 09/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...
40649444 41749484 42069529 42459619 43069606 43159494
42559356 41189235 40649302
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