SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302313
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO THROUGH SERN KS...NERN OK AND NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...699...
VALID 302313Z - 010045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
697...699...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TROUGH ABOUT 01Z AS LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH MO...SERN KS AND NRN
OK. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF NERN CORNER OF WW 697 BEFORE
01Z. AT THIS TIME THREAT EAST OF CURRENT WW APPEARS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
LINE OF STORMS FROM N CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH NERN OK IS MOVING EWD AT
25 TO 30 KT. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NERN CORNER OF WW 697
BY 00Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AND 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA ATTENDING EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STORMS THROUGH NERN MO NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AXIS OF HIGHEST
THETA-E AND WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND AS STORMS
DEVELOP EWD. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 01Z...BUT LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THREAT APPEARS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH SWD
EXTENT INTO NERN OK WHERE CAPE IS HIGHER...BUT FORCING IS WEAKER.
NEVERTHELESS...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER NERN OK FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS/WEAKENS AND AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO
THIS REGION.
.DIAL.. 09/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
35989652 38069449 40369362 40119227 37449307 35839456
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