SWODY1
SPC AC 102253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AMENDED TO ADD LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE TSTM THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF NM
AND THE TX PNHDL REGIONS
..ERN NM/TX PNHDL...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS OF NM OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS A SRN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. TIMING OF LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE HAS COINCIDED WITH MAX
IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION WHERE DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS. WIDELY
SCATTERED WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STORM INTENSITY SUBSIDES WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE
OVER SE CO. SFC HEATING...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
ALONG THE WEST COAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED 70 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL MT THIS EVENING.
.CARBIN.. 10/10/2007
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